Two seats and Tamil Nadu’s return to a political duopoly

As the cliche goes, one week is a long period in politics. And five months, therefore, would technically be very long. The political changes that Tamil Nadu witnessed in the past five months since the assumption of office by the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK)-led government have been reflected in the byelections to the Madurantakam and Dharapuram Assembly constituencies, both reserved for the Scheduled Castes (SCs).

Internally, the two Dravidian parties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — witnessed high drama soon after the TVK emerged as the single largest party in the Assembly election held in April-May. Three days after C. Joseph Vijay became the Chief Minister (on May 10), a group of 25 AIADMK MLAs broke ranks with party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and voted in favour of the TVK in the Assembly during the trust motion. By then, most of the allies had deserted the DMK and jumped on to the TVK bandwagon. Four MLAs — two from the Congress and one MLA each from the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and the Indian Union Muslim League — were later made Ministers. The State’s first multi-party Council of Ministers was in place. Meanwhile, the AIADMK’s six MLAs, who cross-voted in favour of the TVK in the Assembly in violation of the party’s direction, had quit their Assembly seats and joined the ruling party. A number of former Ministers and functionaries of the party followed suit.

On expected lines

It was against this backdrop that the byelections were held on October 6. When the results were out on October 9, they were along expected lines as byelections in the State have always gone in favour of the ruling party. In that sense, the victory of the TVK in the two constituencies was not surprising. However, while it was definitely among the probabilities, it was nevertheless not considered a certainty for a couple of reasons: first, the TVK did not secure a majority of its own in the April-May Assembly election, though it had a vote share of about 35%. Second, given a high degree of SC representation in the Cabinet, the talk had been doing the rounds in political and bureaucratic circles about the possible consolidation of intermediary castes, accounting for a substantial section of the population in the two constituencies.

Factors that were also expected to impact the elections included old caste and political alignments. In Dharapuram, the ruling party came third five months ago, securing around 23% of the votes polled. Besides, the constituency, where the intermediary community of Kongu Vellala Gounders accounts for around 40% and the SCs around 30% of the electors, is the AIADMK’s traditional stronghold in the western belt. In a conversation a few weeks ago, a TVK Minister sounded more confident about his party’s prospects in Madurantakam than in Dharapuram. Another factor in the mix was that the two TVK candidates had been victors in the Assembly election, as AIADMK candidates. A significant feature of the byelections was that the number of complaints about money distribution was fewer than in the past.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and TVK president C. Joseph Vijay with party candidate for Madurantakam Maragatham Kumaravel at a campaign meeting. | Photo Credit: PTI