US Midterms: Congressional Races That Matter Most And Could Reshape America’s Political Future

With Election Day two days away, the outcome of the November 3 midterms will be decided by a small number of Senate and House contests rather than by the nationwide mood alone. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate and three to win the House, and the battle for both chambers is concentrated in a handful of states and districts where polls show narrow margins.

The House is considered likely to shift to Democratic control, according to several forecasting models, while the Senate is far more finely balanced. The contests below are the ones most likely to determine who controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, and which party sets the agenda on spending, oversight and nominations.

Which Senate Races Will Decide Control Of The Chamber?

North Carolina is among the most important contests. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is ahead of Republican Michael Whatley, with an Elon University poll giving Cooper a lead of 52 per cent to 39 per cent. The seat is open after Republican Thom Tillis chose not to seek re-election, and a Democratic win would be a significant gain for the party.

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Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat against Republican Representative Mike Collins, is also decisive. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey gave Ossoff a lead of 48 per cent to 40 per cent, and the RealClearPolling average puts him ahead by about eight points. Georgia’s rules mean that a runoff on 1 December would be required if no candidate wins a majority, which could delay the final Senate outcome for weeks.

Texas has become one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in a CNN survey by 49 per cent to 43 per cent, and in a Texas Southern University and YouGov poll by 49 per cent to 47 per cent.

A Democratic win in Texas would be a significant departure from recent elections in the state, and analysts describe the contest as a test of the national environment in a traditionally Republican stronghold.

Maine’s race between Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is equally important.

A CNN poll put Jackson ahead by 49 per cent to 45 per cent. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal races, and the count may take longer if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.