A nuclear renaissance is not yet on the anvil

Inherent challenges and a gradual expansion can’t make nuclear power the mainstay of India’s energy security

The enactment of legislation in 2006 enabling India to enter into a pact with the USA on cooperation in the development of nuclear power for civil use had perceptibly raised expectations of nuclear power becoming a significant source of the country’s electricity. For almost two decades thereafter, that hope remained belied for a variety of geopolitical, technical and commercial reasons. With complementary legislation, the SHANTI Act, taking effect last year, and the demonstrated capability to turn a locally available raw material into radioactive uranium, enthusiasm about nuclear energy has re-emerged.

Suggestions are forthcoming about building an ecosystem in India that would make it self-reliant and globally competitive in nuclear energy, and facilitate the attainment of the much-cherished goal of long-term energy security. A Nuclear Energy Mission, announced in the 2025-26 Union Budget, seeks to expand national nuclear power capacity twelvefold, from the existing 8.8 gigawatts (GW) to 100 GW by 2047. Operating at a PLF of 79%, the commonly used utilisation index for thermal generation facilities, the 24 nuclear stations generated 3.1% of India’s electricity in 2025-26.

The strategy detailed in the Mission document conceives pushing forward the three-stage nuclear development programme, deploying several technologies in the expansion. It anchors heavily on progressively harnessing the country’s abundant rare earth resources, particularly monazite, to produce thorium and reduce dependence on constant imports of uranium, the essential radioactive material for generating electricity. Sustained investment in technologies such as uranium-fuelled heavy water reactors, plutoniumfuelled fast breeders and, eventually, systems using uranium-233 bred from thorium forms the strategy’s backbone.

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Alongside this, new technologies like fusion-based energy have been marked for greater attention. Widespread adoption of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which have capacities of up to 300 MW and lend themselves to offsite manufacture, is expected to contribute significantly to taking aggregate nuclear power capacity to 100 GW by 2047. An increased role for private participation is now being proposed in India’s nuclear energy endeavours, particularly in the development of SMRs.

CHALLENGES

Essential as it is to tap all available options, including nuclear, to meet growing energy needs, their comparative advantages and constraints warrant careful consideration. As per the latest Statistical Review of World Energy, nuclear plants around the world generated 2,845 terawatthours (TWh) in 2025. This was 1.3% higher than in 2024, and about the same as the 2,803 TWh generated in 2006. The intervening 19 years certainly did not witness much nuclear power expansion, and its share of global energy supply edged down from 5.19% to 5.17%.

With 29% of the global total, the USA remains the top nuclear generator; its output is 70% higher than that of China, now ranked second with 485 TWh, or 17% of global generation. Almost all new nuclear power capacity in recent years has come from China. With 63.98 GW, it has overtaken France’s 63 GW to take second position in installed capacity as well. The USA, with 96.9 GW, remains at the top, but much of the new capacity coming up there replaces retiring facilities, with little net addition.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that India’s electricity demand between 2026 and 2030 would grow annually by 6.4%, or 570 terawatthours (TWh) of consumption per year. The aggregate nuclear energy generated in 2025-26 was 55.19 TWh, or below 10% of the annual incremental demand. How much, and how rapidly, this can be enhanced in the short term up to 2031-32 and the medium term up to 2047 remains a moot point.

Reaching a nuclear capacity of 22 GW by 2031-32, as intended by the Indian Department of Atomic Energy, and operating at 85% PLF would generate 74.5 TWh of electricity annually. This would be 13% of the annual increase in power demand projected by the IEA for 2030. Though the time taken to commission new nuclear stations in India is much longer than the intervening gap of five to six years, 7 GW of this is from facilities already under construction and a smaller quantum from altogether new projects. Even reaching 22 GW would not make too much of a difference to the country’s aggregate energy supply.